2024 Review

and new plans for 2025

Hello and welcome

2024 was a wild year.
I lost 9 kg and and am now back to normal weight. Furthermore I started to enjoy going to the gym.

Reviewing the performance

In terms of performance it was volatile, at the end being up 8,67% . The year started relatively well with Hong Kong stocks being flat, and Sumiseki being short squeezed being a 10x from my purchase account. I missed the sell window tho and the stock went limit down several day in a row.
In the end, the stock was a 5-bagger. Sadly it was sized very small.

Then throughout the year I was up over 50% at one time due to Hong Kong and Chinese Tech stocks going on an absolute tear. After that I miscalculated the Trump win and got my face absolutely ripped on in the insane rally that confirmed we are in a huge bubble on my shorts.
The market trades independent of fundamentals. Fartcoin is at over 1.3b market cap and Tesla is up despite having negative growth in terms of deliveries, and trading higher than the whole car industry combined.

Overall the year ended kinda meh. 8% is not bad, but compared to the market it is. I still hold most of the companies I wrote about in the last year and still think that China and Hong Kong is incredibly cheap.

Seeking investment biases

I always try to find out where my biases lie. I know I buy too early - but for example when back-testing if I should held positions 1, 3 or even 5 years longer than I bought them at - I sold pretty well.

What I found out however, is that my allocation at the beginning of the year - even in terms of shorts, created better returns than what I changed during it.

So I decided to put part of the money into a new portfolio and especially sectors I find interesting.
The portfolio will be 115% long and 15% short, with defined stops and I won't look at it until the year is over. The different themes are very similarly balanced with a focus on China and Oil stocks.

LATAM

Brazil and Colombia seem to currently have problems with their currency and political uncertainly. Bancolombia the not just the biggest bank in the Colombia, but one of the cheapest worldwide.
In Brazil the fintech-bank Nu Holdings seems extraordinarily cheap given their growth.

Oil

Oil seems to have been a forgotten asset, that despite middle-east tensions has gone down over the last year. However there are a few companies that are in my opinion too cheap to pass up on.
Ecopetrol, Petrobras for LATAM oil companies and Viridian, African Oil and Tidewater to play a rising oil market in general.

Mining

Another sector I think will do well is Mining. I have three undisclosed small positions that are a bet on a friend, who is involved. The other positions here are Glencore - which is among the most diversified and cheapest mining companies out there and Global Atomic.
The situation in Niger with Global Atomic is still uncertain, but it is now at a point again where the Turkish Smelter is worth as much as the whole company.

China

China is another big allocation. Xiaomi and Tencent are the biggest ones being followed up by BYD. Postal Savings Bank of China is incredibly cheap and so is Netease given the recovery in computer gaming. Since I already have Alibaba in the other portfolio as a big position, it is not here.

Video Games

Speaking of video games, it is another sector that I am bullish on. Especially the sim game sector is interesting. Guillemont, makers of wheels etc and Digital Bros who makes the racing sim Assetto Corza. CD Project Red (creators of the Witcher) is another interesting company. They ironed out the at launch lackluster Cyberpunk and are now developing Witcher 4.

GARP

This is probably the smallest allocation, but they are YubiKey, which are the makers of hardware two factor authentication and Zigexn - a Japanese companies I have followed for a few years now.

I hope you all had a great year and I wish you a great 2025!