Another brilliant read! Thanks for sharing and looking forward to your analysis of Webb holdings in HK.
One question: How come you say that you see real estate not in a recession? Which data or narratives lead you to that conclusion? What I see: transaction volume down big time in US and Europe and lumber signals that construction in the US is rather weak. So interested to understand about real estate avoiding a recession/contraction in H1 2023.
I think that real estate was in a bubble before and is now cooling off. The official definition of a recession is two declining quarters of growth - but in my opinion that doesn't really hold - if the growth before was artificially pumped. For me recession means falling below a normal level, but as we had elevated ones, that is different.
New homes sales have come down a lot, but they are now in a more healthy range of what we used to see prior to 2020. Contraction sure, but I would not define it as a recession.
Another brilliant read! Thanks for sharing and looking forward to your analysis of Webb holdings in HK.
One question: How come you say that you see real estate not in a recession? Which data or narratives lead you to that conclusion? What I see: transaction volume down big time in US and Europe and lumber signals that construction in the US is rather weak. So interested to understand about real estate avoiding a recession/contraction in H1 2023.
I think that real estate was in a bubble before and is now cooling off. The official definition of a recession is two declining quarters of growth - but in my opinion that doesn't really hold - if the growth before was artificially pumped. For me recession means falling below a normal level, but as we had elevated ones, that is different.
New homes sales have come down a lot, but they are now in a more healthy range of what we used to see prior to 2020. Contraction sure, but I would not define it as a recession.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales
B(r)auhaus would have been a very nice asset play, over recent years. Probably gone now.
Haven't looked at in in detail - but looks like they are selling of a lot of the assets. Maybe there is still a puff left
Thanks for sharing!