Thanks for sharing. I have been short tesla with good results. Looks like it'll be a bumpy ride, to selling ATM strangles & being long TSLQ is what I plan to follow. And being long TLT - first phase of high inflation looks done for now. When fed make the second mistake, it'll probably come back roaring. Might do Long India Short SPY trade if dollar index appears to have flattened.
I find India currently way to expensive. It is the most expensive an emerging market has been since Korea before the financial Crisis. Might be a good play - but not a game that I am willing to play given the valuation.
I agree, India is very expensive. But one thing that going right for them is they are managing macro very very well. Having said that one thing I am currently long is TUR, I shorted Lira last year and it went well till Lira did a 25% move in few hours and blew up my short. It still went downhill after that. What I missed in that trade was to follow the TUR etf. Was wondering why it's climbing up with Lira going downhill and erdogan cutting interest rates in high inflation env. It then made sense that people are probably pilling into stocks, with their elections still a good 6 months away they will continue to keep the same policy. Don't think TUR does anything but go up, moving the stop loss up as it moves up.
Hi man, thanks for sharing all of this with us. I just had a look at Lion Rock: what bother me is that they were at 5x earnings, 7% dividend when China was sexy. You have dig deeper so I can't pretend bringing much, but they would need to really succeed in their expansion to make it worth. Or a very quick repricing yeah. But Hong-Kong is definitely a fertile ground at the moment. Cheers and happy NY !
They are in a business that is not really attractive tho, so they never really got a repricing in that way. They just were repriced down, not up.
I don't think a quick repricing is necessary given close to 10% dividend yield and some small buybacks. That is a pretty good return. If earnings & dividends grow, that return would become even better.
Hi Mat, just discovered your substack through Twitter. LatAm oil and nvda short are actual plays for me as well, so I was very happy to see escpecially your nvda short. Best greetings and happy Christmas!
Great to have you as a new subscriber, hope you like my thoughts. Which LATAM oil company do you currently like best? Do you invest into others than the big ones?
I went through your older articles, really like your writing and found a lot of interesting things, thank you very much! I have no preferred LatAm O&G, positions are about same size. It´s more a directional trade so i own those 3 big ones as a basket. Sentiment is terrible as you know but actually i see more political/jurisdiction risks in western O&G right now (which is of course kind of consent now as well) than in LatAm. I owned Petrotal at some point but there is enough upside in the big ones. Those are 20 % of my PF, i am especially bullish on Oilfield and Offshore services, for example BORR and RIG (Nick Radical came very bullish lately as well).
Great that you enjoy them. I agree, that a basket approach is quite good. Latam and the western O&G for me have exactly the same risks, the difference is that it is priced in for the Latam ones - but not the ones in the west.
I am also bullish Offshore services especially RIG and Valaris and I am currently looking at CGG which is helping with exploration. No position yet tho (except like a 1% for RIG)
Interesting to read that you closed your Carnava short position in Dec/2022 when the stock was at $4.74. That marked the exact bottom and Carvana is now at $260 ...about 5,400% higher!
I initiated a holding in Carvana in early 2023 and then added to it with confidence after Apollo agreed to the debt restructuring in July/2023:
I still remain long Carvana, though in smaller size. Along the way, another substack contributor provided much of the analytical background to support the long thesis:
Thanks for sharing. I have been short tesla with good results. Looks like it'll be a bumpy ride, to selling ATM strangles & being long TSLQ is what I plan to follow. And being long TLT - first phase of high inflation looks done for now. When fed make the second mistake, it'll probably come back roaring. Might do Long India Short SPY trade if dollar index appears to have flattened.
I find India currently way to expensive. It is the most expensive an emerging market has been since Korea before the financial Crisis. Might be a good play - but not a game that I am willing to play given the valuation.
I agree, India is very expensive. But one thing that going right for them is they are managing macro very very well. Having said that one thing I am currently long is TUR, I shorted Lira last year and it went well till Lira did a 25% move in few hours and blew up my short. It still went downhill after that. What I missed in that trade was to follow the TUR etf. Was wondering why it's climbing up with Lira going downhill and erdogan cutting interest rates in high inflation env. It then made sense that people are probably pilling into stocks, with their elections still a good 6 months away they will continue to keep the same policy. Don't think TUR does anything but go up, moving the stop loss up as it moves up.
Damn that is a nice trade!
Hi man, thanks for sharing all of this with us. I just had a look at Lion Rock: what bother me is that they were at 5x earnings, 7% dividend when China was sexy. You have dig deeper so I can't pretend bringing much, but they would need to really succeed in their expansion to make it worth. Or a very quick repricing yeah. But Hong-Kong is definitely a fertile ground at the moment. Cheers and happy NY !
They are in a business that is not really attractive tho, so they never really got a repricing in that way. They just were repriced down, not up.
I don't think a quick repricing is necessary given close to 10% dividend yield and some small buybacks. That is a pretty good return. If earnings & dividends grow, that return would become even better.
Hi, was wondering why the Silver miner portfolio you are constructing does not include Fresnillo Plc (FRES.UK)? http://www.fresnilloplc.com/who-we-are/our-story/
Thanks for the tip, I did not have them on my radar.
Hi Mat, just discovered your substack through Twitter. LatAm oil and nvda short are actual plays for me as well, so I was very happy to see escpecially your nvda short. Best greetings and happy Christmas!
Great to have you as a new subscriber, hope you like my thoughts. Which LATAM oil company do you currently like best? Do you invest into others than the big ones?
I went through your older articles, really like your writing and found a lot of interesting things, thank you very much! I have no preferred LatAm O&G, positions are about same size. It´s more a directional trade so i own those 3 big ones as a basket. Sentiment is terrible as you know but actually i see more political/jurisdiction risks in western O&G right now (which is of course kind of consent now as well) than in LatAm. I owned Petrotal at some point but there is enough upside in the big ones. Those are 20 % of my PF, i am especially bullish on Oilfield and Offshore services, for example BORR and RIG (Nick Radical came very bullish lately as well).
Great that you enjoy them. I agree, that a basket approach is quite good. Latam and the western O&G for me have exactly the same risks, the difference is that it is priced in for the Latam ones - but not the ones in the west.
I am also bullish Offshore services especially RIG and Valaris and I am currently looking at CGG which is helping with exploration. No position yet tho (except like a 1% for RIG)
I'm sharing a link about Nvidia in 2024 for reference:
They are averaging $211.2M in daily net profit, That’s ~$1 billion in profit every week!
https://x.com/swaaanson/status/1859598208445673531
Interesting to read that you closed your Carnava short position in Dec/2022 when the stock was at $4.74. That marked the exact bottom and Carvana is now at $260 ...about 5,400% higher!
I initiated a holding in Carvana in early 2023 and then added to it with confidence after Apollo agreed to the debt restructuring in July/2023:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/19/business/carvana-apollo-debt-restructuring.html
I still remain long Carvana, though in smaller size. Along the way, another substack contributor provided much of the analytical background to support the long thesis:
https://indrastocks.substack.com/